The U.S. Federal Reserve Board may have tried to talk a bit tougher on inflation yesterday, but analysts don’t expect it to follow through with rate hikes anytime soon.

“The FOMC stayed on hold, but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone in its policy statement. Nonetheless, the markets still expect too much in the way of rate hikes in the coming year,” argues BCA Research.

“It was no doubt a lively FOMC meeting this month, with several members probably arguing for either a rate hike, or at least tougher language in the policy statement. The statement made a gesture in that direction, noting that downside economic risks had moderated while upside inflation risks had increased,” the independent research firm says.

However, the case for tightening is still weak, BCA believes. “The underlying inflation picture is better than the headline data suggest, many market interest rates are still higher than before the Fed started to ease, and the credit system is not yet functioning properly. Market expectations of a 50 basis point rise in rates over the next six months are too aggressive,” it maintains.

This view is echoed by TD Securities, which says, “Overall, the tone of the report suggests that the Fed is likely to keep the policy rate steady in the near to medium terms as it assess the incoming data over the coming month, though it now appears to possess an upside bias to the balance of risks. We believe that the Fed may continue to talk tough in an effort to shore-up the dollar, but do not see them actually hiking rates in the near-term.”

“The upside risks to the inflation outlook and nascent signs of a pickup in inflation expectations present a case for policy to become less accommodative in the months ahead. However, with the housing market still in recession and the financial sector under pressure, a rate hike risks choking off economic growth and increasing the downside risks to the economic outlook,” adds RBC Economics. “While we expect the Fed to continue to highlight their worries about inflation, we view the downside risks to growth as significant enough to justify keeping the Funds rate at 2%.”

National Bank Financial suggests that the FOMC statement was not designed to alter market expectations for more than 50 basis points of rate hikes before the yearend, but it also thinks that, “unfolding economic events (softening in labour markets, considerable stress in financial markets and tighter credit conditions) argue against pulling the trigger that soon.”

“Our projection suggests that housing prices will fall further and the U.S. economy will keep growing below potential in coming quarters. Consequently the U.S. labour market will remain soft, leaving little room for wage gains that would add to the threat to price stability. This scenario would allow even a nervous Fed to stay on the sidelines longer than the bond market is currently discounting,” it says. “ In these conditions, Fed trigger-happiness would risk a deep recession that could result in unwelcome disinflation 24 months down the road.”

NBF believes labour markets remain the key for determining the timing of rate hikes. “Until we get some stabilization, we doubt very much that the Fed will pull the trigger,” it argues. “Historically, the FOMC has never tightened policy when the jobless rate is on the rise. Labour markets will eventually stabilize, but not before mid-2009.” Consequently, NBF does not expect the Fed to tighten before mid-2009.