The credit derivatives market is showing strong growth, although opinions are mixed as to the sector’s future, according to new research from Fitch Ratings.

”The credit derivatives market continues to grow rapidly in size and complexity,” said Ian Linnell, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa at Fitch’s Financial Institutions Group in London, and co-author of the report. “The notional amount of outstanding credit derivatives contracts rose from US$5.3 trillion sold at yearend 2004 to nearly US$12 trillion at yearend 2005, an increase of 122%.” Index and index-related credit derivative products were particularly strong, growing more than 900% in the past year, reaching US$3.7 trillion.

The report shows that while banks continue to shift credit risk to the global insurance and financial guarantor sector, the amount of protection purchased was down significantly, at 37% or US$159 billion, from last year. In other words, increasing numbers of banks were beginning to take on credit risk in 2005 via the credit derivatives market. The industry did not move in lock step. Many large European banks moved from net protection buyers to flat or even net protection sellers, particularly in the case of several British and Swiss banks, while North American institutions were generally stable in terms of their net exposure, Fitch reported.

For the first time, Fitch’s survey has also attempted to gauge expectations regarding growth for the CDx market overall, as well as for specific product areas. There was little consensus on broad market growth, Fitch said. Growth expectations varied from very robust to moderate or even slow growth. Potential areas for future stagnation included vanilla CDS, CDO-squared transactions and options on credit default swaps, followed by first to default baskets.

Jim Batterman, senior director in Fitch’s Credit Policy Group, said, “Not surprisingly, respondents named index products more than any other area as the one most likely to grow robustly this year. Liquidity in many of the indices is probably among the highest of any spread product. Besides index products, a fair number of investors also expect to see growth in some of the newer structures in the market, including asset-backed CDS, and loan-only CDS.”

The survey confirmed Fitch’s opinion that settlement is one of the biggest challenges facing the CDx market. Settlement following a credit event and trade confirmations in general, far and away topped the list as the most worrisome concerns of the market place, although concerns were also raised about pricing and liquidity.