The global financial turmoil will bring Ontario to the brink of recession this year and into 2009, according to an outlook released Thursday by the Conference of Canada.

“The slowdown in financial and consumer activity in the United States will take its toll on Ontario, which will produce economic growth of just 0.2% this year and 0.8% next year,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director, Provincial Outlook, in a release.

“In 2009, Ontario will post its first trade deficit since the province began keeping records almost thirty years ago. Ontario consumers will also tighten their belts, weakening growth in the domestic economy.”

Saskatchewan is poised to lead the country in real GDP growth in both 2008 (5.2%) and 2009 (3.6%). Even though commodity prices have weakened in recent months, Saskatchewan’s diversified mix of natural resources and agricultural commodities will maintain strong export growth, the Conference Board said.

Manitoba is also weathering the economic storm, thanks to a diversified economy-the forecast calls for growth of 2.7% in 2008 and 2.4% in 2009.

Alberta’s economy will grow by just 1.2% in 2008, as output declined in goods-producing industries-manufacturing, construction, and mineral fuels. With these industries expected to rebound in 2009, Alberta is forecast to generate real GDP growth of 2.6%.

Following real GDP growth of just 1.2% this year, British Columbia can expect another year of lethargic growth in 2009 (1.8%). The U.S. housing market collapse continues to batter B.C. exports, and the province’s long construction boom is drawing to a close.

With its economy forecast to expand by 0.9% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009, Quebec will post real GDP growth on par with the Canadian economy as a whole. Buoyed by an optimistic outlook for the province’s aerospace industry, exports are finally expected to begin to grow again next year.

Newfoundland and Labrador will post a relatively solid growth rate of 1.5% in 2008, but the economy will contract in 2009 when oil production from offshore fields declines by 14%.

Nova Scotia’s economy will grow by 1.5% this year, but growth will decelerate to one% in 2009, when output declines in both the mining and manufacturing industries.

New Brunswick’s economy will grow by one% this year and 0.8% next year. Forestry and manufacturing industries are suffering from the U.S. slowdown, and major construction projects are coming to a close.

With growth of 0.7% in 2009 and 1.3% in 2009, Prince Edward Island is also being affected by the slowdown, particularly the fishing and trapping industry that exports to western Canadian and U.S. markets.

IE