The big U.S. banks had a mixed earnings performance in the fourth quarter of 2014, with the large regional banks generally outperforming the global trading and universal banks, reports Fitch Ratings.
The rating agency says that the 17 largest U.S. banks had a mixed quarter, as revenue growth remains impacted by low interest rates and relatively modest loan growth. At the same time, expenses are under pressure from litigation costs, technology enhancements, and regulatory and compliance efforts. It notes that 11 of the 17 banks reported higher spending on a sequential basis.
Net charge-offs remain very low in general for the industry, Fitch says, although most banks reported higher loan losses. And, capital ratios also fell slightly in the fourth quarter, it says.
The big trading banks saw their earnings affected by a sizeable drop in capital markets activities and continuing legal fees, Fitch notes.
It reports that capital markets revenues were down 17% in the quarter, and down 11% from a year ago. “The return of volatility in October, and then again in December, led to reduced liquidity, and much worse fixed income currency and commodity results,” it says.
Additionally, Fitch says that it expects litigation-related costs to remain elevated at the trading banks over the near term, with pending issues such as LIBOR-related investigations, possible currency market manipulation, and legacy private-label securitizations, still to be resolved.
“With little short-term interest rate movement expected in first-half 2015, bank revenue growth is likely to remain challenged over the near term,” Fitch says. “Earnings will be further impacted by hard to sustain cost controls and rising provisions. Offsetting these pressures may be a boost from mortgage refinancing activity, while advisory fees are expected to remain solid.”
Fitch also says that direct-loan exposure to energy-related companies is manageable for the big banks. None of the 17 large banks has more than 5.0% exposure to energy related loans, it reports. And, it says that any impact on loan growth may be partially offset by the benefits of lower gasoline prices to consumers. “The ultimate impact will be dependent on the duration and severity of downward oil price movements,” it concludes.