Fund managers are increasingly worried about inflation, and are pulling back from stocks as a result, according to Merrill Lynch’s latest global fund manager survey.

The net balance expecting global ‘core’ inflation to be higher a year from now rose to a record 86%.

Asset allocators believe that the inflation risks are on the upside, Merrill says, noting that Chinese inflation continues to be a source of concern, with a net 65% of respondents expecting higher inflation there a year from now. A net 29% of managers believe that inflation-linked bonds will outperform conventional bonds.

Fund managers believe that central banks are complacent about inflation, and consequently are seen as “well behind the curve”. A net 56% of those polled believe that monetary policy is too stimulative — the highest balance recorded in the past four years.

Fund managers’ estimates of the Equity Risk Premium rose sharply from 3.7% to 3.9%, Merrill reports. “But what is most striking is the sharp rise in cash levels. The net balance ‘overweight cash’ rose sharply from 9% in April to 27% in May, while the mean cash balance rose from 3.8% to 4.5% — the highest recorded since spring 2003. There are some tentative signs, too, that net inflows to equity funds have begun to slow down.”

“This month has seen a 3% point fall in the percentage of equities held by a typical balanced fund, and a sharp increase in cash balances. The widespread under-weighting of bonds continues. Not surprisingly, the rise in risk aversion on the back of fears of tighter Fed policy is prompting a major defensive shift,” Merrill comments. “The clearest global theme is a move out of banks and into pharmaceuticals/consumer staples. Interestingly, pharmaceuticals are now seen as the cheapest global sector.”

“The major casualty has been emerging market equities, which have been hurt by the squeeze on liquidity coming out of the U.S. and by expectations that China may slow,” it notes. “The majority of asset allocators remain overweight Japan — although that position might also be at risk if we see a further defensive rotation by institutional investors.”

http://ml.com/researchmarketing/content/merrillfundsurvey.pdf