The minutes from the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee indicates that central bankers are unlikely to do more to ease monetary policy.
The FOMC released the minutes from its September 20-21 meeting, in which it decided to introduce a couple on extraordinary policy measures to bolster the economic recovery, but did not announce a third round of quantitative easing.
TD Economics reports that the minutes show that some members of the FOMC judged that a third round of large-scale asset purchases, and the resulting expansion of the Fed balance sheet, “should be reserved for a scenario of elevated deflation risks”.
Indeed, it notes that the most important message contained in the minutes is that “QE III would only materialize if the U.S. economy faces another downturn and risks deflation.” But the minutes indicate that the policymakers saw relatively little danger of inflation.
“The tacit consensus appears to be that the risks-rewards trade-off for any further monetary policy actions is largely unfavorable to the Fed,” TD adds. “This would only exacerbate the resistance by those members already inclined not to provide additional accommodation.”
Yet, while it appears that monetary policy has done all it can to stimulate recovery in the US, RBC Economics points out that last week US Federal Reserve Board chairman, Ben Bernanke, noted in his testimony before the Joint Economic Committee that the FOMC “is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”
TD notes that in his testimony to Congress, Bernanke also stressed that policies directed to improving conditions in the labor markets, housing, trade, taxation, and regulation should play a more active role in this recovery. “Today’s minutes reinforce the message that monetary policy has done pretty much everything it could to stimulate economic activity,” it concludes.