TD Bank economists predict that The Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points next week as the European Central Bank moves to the sidelines following a rate cut of its own Thursday.

In a research note, TD indicates that the only major change since the Bank of Canada last met on Dec. 9 and cut rates by 75 bps to 1.5% is the pace of deterioration in the economic activity. “Even at this new historical low in official rates, there is still a solid case for more monetary stimulus,” it says.

“The economic data in Canada has categorically deteriorated further, and against this backdrop much of the world is in recession, which suggests that the turnaround will be slow. Moreover, there have been signs — both qualitative and quantitative — that inflation is on a downtrend. Finally, credit conditions remain in frail health, suggesting ongoing downward pressure on the economy,” it says. And, TD concludes that the combination of these factors suggests that the Bank of Canada will cut by another 50 bps to leave the overnight rate at 1%.

It allows that a 75 bps rate cut is not impossible, but the market appears to be expecting a 50 bps move for now. “If the Bank were to cut 75bps leaving the overnight rate at 75bps, if the next move was a 50bps rate cut, there would be very little room for manoeuvring. This argues for two more 50bps rate cuts, which is our core view and would ultimately take the overnight rate down to 50bps,” it says.

Assuming that the Bank does deliver a 50 bps cut, TD notes that the accompanying policy statement takes on a bit more prominent role as there is less room for traditional monetary policy measures. “On that front, the Bank will need to strike a delicate balance between signalling further cuts and sounding too dovish and allowing the market to get ahead of itself,” it says, adding that the question is whether it will continue to hint at more stimulus ahead.

“The Bank may be reluctant to commit to a course of action given that there is little room to manoeuvre when the overnight rate is 1%. Instead, the Bank might be inclined to rephrase that portion of the statement to be a little more noncommittal,” it concludes.

Additionally, in a separate note, TD reports that the ECB cut the main refinancing rate for the fourth month in a row, bringing the level to 2%. “This was in line with market expectations, and, while we believed there was a large chance for the ECB to cut less than what they did, the disappointment was delivered during the post-decision press conference instead,” it reports, as ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet suggested that it won’t be cutting rates again in the short term.

“While we believe the ECB will ultimately need to lower rates 50-75 basis points from here, this will likely not come until the April to June period, as the evidence mounts for the ECB that the economic weakness in the Eurozone will linger into the latter half of the year,” TD suggests.