Volatile market conditions are negatively impacting the retail investment business as investors remain too reluctant to take on risk, according to Ian Russell, president and CEO of the Investment Industry Association of Canada.
Speaking at the Ontario Securities Commission Dialogue conference in Toronto on Tuesday, Russell said investors continue to be rattled by the extreme levels of market volatility and disappointing economic news.
“Investors know only too well from recent experience that their accumulated financial wealth is at risk,” Russell said. “They are desperately trying to preserve capital, and as well, achieve a return on their portfolios. But everywhere they look, they seem to see a reason for uncertainty.”
This is hurting the investment industry, Russell said. While financial advisors are doing their best to keep clients invested in investment grade bonds and blue chip stocks, investors continue to hold large amounts of cash and have become much less active in the markets than just six months ago.
“Until signs of stability and improved prospects return, [investment] activity is likely to remain at depressed levels,” Russell said.
If the current conditions continue in the next two months, he said retail investment revenues will likely be down by 20% this year from last year.
“The number of firms losing money in the industry increased steadily in the April to July period, and has moved even higher in more recent months,” Russell said.
He anticipates that these tough conditions, combined with growing compliance costs that are compressing profit margins for industry firms, could contribute to more industry consolidation in the coming years.
Issuers are also facing challenges, Russell said, with IPO activity and debt offerings both down substantially this year. It’s become especially hard for small and mid-sized companies to raise capital in the current environment, he said, since there’s little investor appetite for anything even slightly risky.
Contributing to the turbulent market conditions is global economic weakness, according to Russell. He said the economic recovery in the U.S. and around the world is being hampered by huge fiscal and household debt loads. The debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States has reached its highest level since the Second World War, he pointed out, yet government spending has done little to bolster economic activity.
“It’s hard to get people to spend when they’re overwhelmed by household debt,” he said.
While Canada has managed its debt load well compared to other countries, Russell noted that markets in this country are not sheltered from the global turmoil.
“There seems to be no safe port,” he said. “So, it’s not surprising that investors are worried.”
When markets finally do turn around, Russell expects the recovery to be swift.
“If we see a credible, comprehensive solution, one can envision considerable improvement in our capital markets,” he said. “Financing and trading activity can rebound rapidly if conditions suddenly reverse direction.”