Investors may worry that a Kerry-Edwards White House will significantly change the environment for big business, National Bank Financial warns in a new report.

Senator John Kerry chose John Edwards as his Democratic running mate for the 2004 presidential election Tuesday. “So far, both Kerry and Edwards have been perceived as members of the protectionist camp,” says NBF in a report by chief strategist Clément Gignac.

It notes that politicians have frequently used stronger protectionism as tool to bring down the trade deficit or fight unemployment.

However, NBF argues that history shows this economic policy does not work, “and must be interpreted as a global lose-lose situation.”

“Not only will the global economy suffer, but any U.S. trade partner’s protectionist countermeasure will also hurt the U.S. economic-growth and profit outlook,” Gignac says. “In addition, U.S. inflationary expectations could be revised upward, since deflationary forces based on cheap imports from China and India will suddenly decline. This issue is especially important since commodities prices and interest rates are already on the rise.”

“In the short term, Wall Street will focus much more on the upcoming Q2 results and earnings guidance than next November’s elections. However, a change at the White House could bring uncertainty to the business environment,” the report concludes.