The RBC Financial Group says it is calling for GDP growth of 0.6% for May, slightly higher than consensus estimates of 0.4%.

But even the consensus figure could force the Bank of Canada’s hand on interest rates, the bank says.

Economist Carl Gomez said in a report Tuesday economic data for May, to be released Thursday, should show strong employment growth along with decent performances in the manufacturing, wholesale and trade sectors. In addition, public sector strikes that cut about 0.1 percentage points off the previous month’s output has ended, providing some lift for growth in May.

“Notwithstanding our more bullish call, even a consensus outcome of 0.4% would put second quarter annualized GDP within the ‘above potential’ growth range of 4%,” Gomez says. “This would cut into what little slack remains in the economy and certainly get the Bank of Canada tightening ball rolling by October, if not sooner.”

Gomez says another important indicator this week will be the Business Conditions Survey for the third quarter, due out Friday. The survey is the less-frequent Canadian sister to the ISM manufacturing report in the U.S. It correctly anticipated the improvement in Canadian manufacturing activity early this year, albeit there was a bit of a dip in the second quarter.

“Nevertheless, we expect the indicator to bounce back into generally positive territory, an outcome that is in line with recent evidence suggesting that Canadian exporters are gaining better traction from the U.S. expansion despite a stronger loonie.”