Gold, silver and base metals all exhibit promising investment prospects in the next three years, said Bart Melek, global commodities strategist with BMO Capital Markets Corp., on Monday at the Global Metals and Mining Conference in Florida.
A recent rally in gold prices indicates that the precious metal will continue to perform well in 2009, Melek noted: “We have every reason to believe this bull market for gold will continue for quite some time.”
He noted that investments in exchange-traded funds backed by gold have surged 27% year-to-date.
Melek attributes the strong investor demand for gold to uncertainty surrounding the financial system, and the potential for inflation in the coming months. Many investors consider gold an effective preservation of wealth through uncertain times, he said, noting that “gold has served that purpose very well.”
But there is potential for a correction in gold prices in the near term, Melek warned. Specifically, demand for gold could begin to fall if there is a return to relative stability in financial markets.
Meanwhile, silver has the potential to outperform gold in the next three years, Melek said. Growth in the supply of silver has been weaker than expected, which has recently supported the price of the metal.
Furthermore, an increasing number of investors see silver as a safe haven asset, according to BMO Capital Markets’ data.
In terms of base metals, the widespread commodities sell-off has left prices extremely low, creating strong potential for long-term price growth for the metals, Melek said.
The combination of the recession and a severe lack of available credit have hampered demand for metals around the world, driving the price of many metals far below their cost of production. As a result of the lower revenue and lower demand many producers are experiencing, they are cutting current and future production levels.
Monetary policy actions and stimulus packages by governments around the world will eventually drive up demand for base metals, but this could be slow to kick in, Melek said.
“It could take upwards of a year before you’re starting to have an impact,” he said.
Still, he expects metal prices to begin to turnaround by the second half of 2009 as demand begins to grow and lower production levels reduce supply.
Zinc and copper, Melek said, are two metals in particular that could benefit from this boost very quickly.
Outlook is solid for gold, silver
Base metals such as zinc and copper could see a dramatic reversal of their fortunes if demand begins to grow again
- By: Megan Harman
- February 23, 2009 February 23, 2009
- 13:20