Consumer spending and manufacturing activity data released this week in the U.S. are no reason for panic, says RBC Financial Group.
On balance, the data show the U.S. economy is still fundamentally healthy and that the recent string suggesting a softening marked a “temporary June hiccup,” says RBC economist Allan Seychuk.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that consumers cut their spending by 0.7% in June from the previous month as high energy prices and a sluggish job market made for more cautious buyers. The decline in spending was the first since September 2003 and the largest drop since September 2001.
Seychuk says that while the drop in spending in June will attract a lot of attention, but “it is not surprising that shoppers no longer feel like shopping ’till they drop. They were not supposed to be single-handedly supporting the economy by this point anyway.
“The recovery is maturing and has broadened out to include business spending and exports. A cooling off in consumer spending and the housing market is no cause for alarm.”
In fact, says Seychuk in a report, a nugget of really good news was buried in [Tuesday’s] report: the Federal reserve Board’s preferred measure of consumer price inflation rose only 1.5% from a year earlier, below expectations and down from 1.6% in May.
Seychuk also said Monday’s release of the Institute for Supply Management index of U.S. manufacturing activity, showing a rise to 62 in July from 61.1 in June was in line with expectations and helped confirm that June may have been an anomaly. The ISM was healthy across the board
Referring to the consumer data, Seychuk noted that many economists had expected spending to slow as higher gas prices sapped purchasing power and tax rebates came to an end. Moreover, June’s result is also consistent with other releases showing the economy went through a soft spot in early summer.
But he also noted that a new release of weekly chain store sales showed a rebound in activity in the week ended July 31, rising 0.2% week-over-week and 3.1% from a year earlier. That suggests June’s spending slowdown is already in the past.
By contrast, the string of excellent reports from the construction sector may be coming to an end, Seychuk said. Construction spending dropped 0.3% in June, worse than expected and the first decline in 16 months, while May’s gain was revised down to just 0.1% from 0.3%. With mortgage rates generally on the rise and likely to move higher as the Fed continues to hike rates, it should be no surprise to see weaker homebuilding numbers in the months ahead.
“The Fed’s low-interest rate medicine has done its job-the manufacturing sector is back on its feet, employment growth is picking up, and the June core personal consumption expenditure deflator is just 1.5% higher than a year ago — and it’s now time to remove stimulus from the economy,” Seychuk said.
U.S. economy still healthy: RBC
- By: James Walker
- August 3, 2004 August 3, 2004
- 14:46