Many financial industry leaders doubt the U.S. Treasury’s plan to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets will work as hoped, says Sherry Cooper, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.
In a research note, Cooper reports that earlier this week she attended a conference in Washington, D.C. that drew some of the biggest names in the U.S. financial industry. At that meeting, she was surprised to see an informal vote “that showed that most participants (by far) believe the Public-Private Investment Program to buy legacy assets from troubled banks will not work as currently devised because banks won’t sell enough of these toxic assets at prices that private purchasers would offer; these prices, presumably below current marks, would lead to further writedowns, which require banks to go into the TARP for more capital.”
That said, she also noted that many participants at the conference are now looking beyond the immediate crisis to the problems that may be created by the extreme actions that have been used to resolve the crisis. “My overall impression is just how concerned many leaders are about the prospects of forthcoming inflation and a plunge in the dollar,” she said, noting that former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Paul Volcker, “commented that his hard-won battle against inflation may be at risk.
She also noted that, “The issue of the dollar is very troubling and is highlighted by China and Russia raising the prospects of reduced Treasury buying and substitute reserve currencies.”
Another issue, is the widespread animosity that has developed towards Wall Street from the public at large, she noted. “There will be a continuing firestorm towards Wall Street (in its broadest sense) and towards the business elite in general,” she suggested.
That said, she also pointed out that the financial world has fundamentally changed. “While the goal is the return to fully functioning private credit markets, we are never going back to the credit and spending excesses of ‘03 and ‘04,” she said. “The global imbalances created unsustainable U.S. overspending and undersaving, financed in large measure by China and the petro-countries of the Middle East. America is now painfully deleveraging, which portends slower average growth and lower rates of return in the future.”
Much of the banking business will have to return to its traditional roots too, she noted. “In the U.S. banks must return to banking the old-fashioned way: knowing their customer, strengthening their underwriting standards and limiting leverage. More lending will be financed by deposits and fewer loans will be securitized. Nonbank financial institutions will come under more scrutiny and there will be greater price and volume transparency and capital and collateral requirements on credit default swaps and other derivative products. Financial regulatory oversight will be consolidated and reformed.”
IE
Doubts cloud U.S. plan for toxic assets, Cooper says
Sale of legacy assets could trigger further writedowns
- By: James Langton
- March 25, 2009 March 25, 2009
- 16:20