Bank of Nova Scotia’s Commodity Price Index, which measures price trends in 32 of Canada’s major exports, rose to new heights in March, up 3.8% month-over-month and 3.2% above the previous record in December 2006.

The All Items Index has advanced by 123.4% since the cyclical bottom in October 2001.

The Metal and Mineral Index jumped to a new record in March, the second in as many months, amid further strength in uranium, double-digit price gains for molybdenum and cobalt (specialty steel additives), a strong rebound in copper prices and a spike in nickel to US$21.

“The tremendous staying power of metal prices in this business expansion, despite concern over a slowing U.S. economy, also reflects a global economy which is less and less dominated by the United States,” said Patricia Mohr, vp, economics and commodity market specialist at Scotiabank. “Metal markets were encouraged in March by news that China’s industrial production accelerated in the first quarter, with another 17.6% year-over-year gain announced today for March (up from 14.7% in December).”

“Overall, the Metal and Mineral Index rose 73% above the previous cyclical peak in June 1988, as broad-based strength in base metals, fertilizer-related minerals, uranium and steel alloying agents more than offset a slight decline in gold and silver prices. This Sub-Index could post another record in April,” says Ms. Mohr.

The new record in the All Items Index in March also reflects the recent rejuvenation in the Agricultural Index (particularly wheat, barley and canola prices, linked to the development of biofuels), with another 8.8% gain in March. The Oil and Gas Index also rallied further, after losing ground in early 2007, and, while well below the peak of October 2005, is at a high level. Only the Forest Product Index retreated in March, as lumber and oriented strandboard (OSB) prices continued to soften with the U.S. housing correction. Building material prices are now likely close to a cyclical bottom.