TSX poised for a gain on higher oil, copper prices

The Canadian dollar added 0.02 of a cent to 100.84 cents US.

Wall Street futures were mixed, with Dow Jones industrial futures down 17 points to 13,146, Nasdaq futures up six points to 2,715 and S&P 500 futures slipping 2.2 points to 1,396.30.

In an otherwise quiet week for economic data, investors will look for Canadian data including wholesale trade figures Monday morning, January retail sales on Thursday and February’s Consumer Price Index on Friday.

“Inflation is expected to nudge up slightly for both headline and core (to 2.6% and 2.2%), with the former pumped by gasoline prices and the latter by a tough comparison to a year ago,” said Bank of Montreal’s deputy chief economist Douglas Porter.

“The retail report will be skewed by the massive 15% surge in auto sales at the start of the year, and flattered by higher pump prices, but ex-auto, ex-gas sales will do well to hold steady. Large-scale retail sales fell 0.5% year-over-year in the month, and the warm weather likely crushed seasonal goods sales.”

The Toronto market could certainly use a catalyst to restart a rally that seemed to run out of steam this month after almost five consecutive months of gains. The TSX closed a handful of points lower last week, adding up to a third consecutive weekly decline, leaving the TSX still up 4.5% for this year to date.

That is in sharp contrast to the U.S. market, where the Dow industrials are up more than eight per cent year to date.

Traders will take in the latest reports on U.S. housing starts and sales figures for new and existing homes.

Economists expect housing starts rose by 0.3% last month, while existing home sales gained 0.7% and new home sales climbed by 1.4%.

Also in the U.S., Apple Inc. said it will announce the outcome of its internal discussion concerning its enormous cash balance on Monday morning.

Analysts expect Apple to institute a dividend. It can easily afford one, since it had $97.6 billion in cash and securities at the end of last year. That would be enough for a $100 one-time dividend for every shareholder, but analysts expect the company to institute a modest recurring dividend.

And shipping giant UPS said it has agreed to buy TNT Express for $6.77 billion.

Meanwhile, debt-loaded Greece recently qualified for a second multibillion dollar bailout after its private creditors took significant losses on their bond holdings to avoid losing even more money in a Greek bankruptcy. Now, new doubts are emerging about whether Greece will be able to deliver on austerity promises that were part of the bailout deal.

Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 18 points to 5,947.3. Germany’s DAX dropped 46.37 points to 7,111.5 and France’s CAC-40 lost 24 points to 3,570.8.

Further evidence from the U.S. last week that its economic recovery is gaining strength buoyed stocks elsewhere in Asia. The U.S. is a crucial market for the region’s exporters.

However, data also showed new home prices dropped in 45 Chinese cities in February, the official Xinhua News agency said, the result of government policies intended to cool property speculation.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell one per cent to 21,115.29 as falling home prices in China and its weak trade in the first two months of 2012 kept investors’ verve in check.