National Bank weighed in with its forecast for the Canadian economy in 2005. The bank said the economy will grow at a rate of just over 3% next year, against a still quite favourable global economic backdrop.

“The recent rise in the Canadian dollar will act as a drag on export growth, but business investment will pick up speed and Canadian consumers will continue to benefit from low interest rates,” said Clement Gignac, chief economist of National Bank and senior vp and strategist of National Bank Financial.

The bank said Canada will continue to benefit from the rapidly expanding Chinese economy.

Regionally, the Western provinces will perform above the Canadian average, led the natural resources sector and a variety of energy infrastructure projects.

Quebec and Ontario are expected to record growth of less than 3% due to restructuring in the manufacturing sector.

While the profit margins of many exporters will be adversely affected, the current global economic boom and healthier balance sheets mean that most Canadian businesses are better equipped to deal with the rising Canadian dollar than they were in the early 90s, said Gignac.

National Bank’s economists remain unchanged in their view that the dollar will reach US85¢ in late 2005, while averaging around US83¢ for the year.

The bank said The Bank of Canada should continue to adopt a pragmatic, wait-and-see attitude to monetary policy in 2005, taking the behaviour of the Canadian dollar into account as well as positive factors affecting aggregate demand in Canada. National Bank said the central bank is expected to hike its key rate by 75 basis points in 2005.

South of the border, National Bank said the rebound in U.S. employment setts the stage for yet another year of economic growth in 2005 (+3.7% versus +4.3% in 2004).

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 150 basis points in 2005. The U.S. greenback should continue to fall, the bank said.

On financial markets, rates on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to climb by 75 to 100 basis points and the risk premium on high-yield and emerging market bonds is apt to increase. On the stock market side, National Bank said current North American stock market valuations are still at very attractive levels but slower profit growth will limit potential gains. “In short,” said Gignac, “2005 should be a transition year and most investment vehicles will likely provide investors with modest returns.”