The number of well-off provinces have dwindled to just one from three, and the province is decisively above average, says Global Insight Inc., in a new note.

“During the 1980s, Canada had three solid ‘have’ provinces. Today, Alberta is the only one, though, as B.C.’s standard of living has fallen below the national average, while Ontario’s is barely above average and on a downward trend,” it says.

Global Insight says that B.C. left the ‘have’ camp in the late 1990s, “and now Ontario’s standard of living is heading down toward the national average, leaving only Alberta at the top.”

“Alberta has had the highest standard of living of any province every year since the early 1980s, and there is no letup in sight. Moreover, its GDP growth has outpaced Canada’s overall growth almost every year since 1990, and this strong performance is expected to continue over the medium term,” it says.

“Since 1993, Alberta’s economic growth has outstripped the country’s by a wide margin, largely –but not entirely — due to strong energy prices. Alberta has also offered an “open for business” low tax environment. The high demand for energy in Alberta has required and attracted workers, whose productivity has been sufficient to provide high and rising real GDP per capita,” it adds.

Looking ahead, Global Insight says that the oil sands and its business-friendly investment climate are expected to provide Alberta with a stronger pace of economic growth during 2007-2012 than any other province.

Meanwhile, Ontario’s economy has been expanding at a pace below the Canadian average since the SARS and electricity blackout days of 2003, held down by the appreciating Canadian dollar and high energy prices, it says. Relatively high business taxes have contributed to a relatively weak investment climate, it adds.

“The economy has not completely adjusted to the high Canadian dollar, and the auto sector is also in adjustment. In the longer term, however, the Ontario economy is better positioned than almost any other province to flourish in the knowledge-based economy. As a result, Ontario’s standard of living is forecasted to fall to 5.5% above the Canadian average this year and to continue falling until it levels off to about 4% above the Canadian average in 2010,” Global Insight predicts.

The other possible candidate for ‘have’ status is Saskatchewan. Global Insight’s forecast calls for Saskatchewan to move past B.C. this year and to stay slightly ahead, at only about 1% below the Canadian average over the medium term.

“Saskatchewan’s energy resources, uranium and potash, and decent agricultural crops will bring strong growth to the province this year, moving it past B.C.,” it says. By 2012, the Global Insight forecast sees Saskatchewan keeping slightly ahead of B.C., and just a shade under the Canadian average. Saskatchewan’s rate of economic growth is expected to be below the Canadian average, but a shrinking population and rising labor force participation rate will yield good gains in real GDP per capita, it notes.