The U.S. Federal Reserve Board didn’t say anything at its meetings in Jackson Hole, Wyoming to deter market expectations of a rate cut, reports BCA Research. But the research firm says it’s not certain how big the cut may be.

The firm says that the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference re-affirmed that monetary policy will be eased at the September 18 FOMC meeting. “Presentations on the housing outlook were unremittingly gloomy, and Fed policymakers are clearly attuned to the downside economic risks and the easing in inflation pressures,” it says.

“However, informal discussions with Fed officials highlighted major differences of opinion about the severity of the current situation,” BCA reports. “Thus, it remains very unclear whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points in two weeks’ time.”

Market developments and the tone of the economic data will be critical to determining the Fed’s next move, BCA says.

It adds that officials from the European Central Bank privately maintained a hawkish tone. “Although they probably will reluctantly stay on hold this week,” it predicts.