The credit crisis is set to have long-term implications on economic growth and spending habits of consumers, panelists at an alternative investment industry event said on Thursday.

John Schmitz, president and chief investment officer of Toronto-based hedge fund manager SciVest Capital Management Inc., said he expects the economic recovery to be incredibly slow and weak. He expects economic growth to remain weak for five to 10 years, similar to the experience that Japan had in the 1990s.

“It’s going to be low growth with people slowing paying down the debt,” Schmitz said, speaking at the Toronto panel discussion hosted by the Alternative Investment Management Association Canada. He noted that debt levels remain at historical highs, and will take years to come down.

“I think what we’re looking at is a cultural change, and cultural changes don’t happen in six months or 12 months,” Schmitz said.

This period of weak economic growth will result in lower price-to-earnings ratios, and fairly flat stock prices over the next decade, he said.

Denis Gartman, a well-known U.S. market commentator and forecaster, said the global economy is undergoing a “tectonic societal shift” in the aftermath of the crisis. He said it will take a long time for investors to recover from the shock of witnessing their savings deteriorate so drastically last year.

“Everybody is still hurting from that and they’re going to continue to liquify, continue to deleverage,” Gartman said in the panel discussion.

He does not expect consumers to return to habits of heavily relying on credit and debt to finance spending.

But Stuart Kovensky, co-chief investment officer and director of Onex Credit Partners in New Jersey, said that once the economy recovers, consumers could fall back into their old habits. He noted that during the recession of the late 1980s and early 1990s, consumer habits underwent a similar shift towards saving more and paying off debt. When economic prosperity returned, he said, consumer spending once again surged.

“The second things started to turn up a little bit, everybody went crazy,” Kovensky said. “I’m worried about that happening again.”

Alternative investment strategies at play
In terms of alternative investment strategies in the current environment, Schmitz said managers using quantitative analysis strategies are facing major challenges since the market has hit an inflection point.

“Most quants have had a terrible six months,” he said.

In contrast, Kovensky said strong prospects exist in opportunistic credit investing. He said Onex Credit Partners has had an excellent year, since many opportunities have emerged to purchase the senior debt of many non-investment grade companies at undervalued rates. He expects investment opportunities in this area to continue to emerge in the next three to four years.

IE