The latest version of the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers finds that institutional investors are growing cautious on the global economic recovery, with worries about Europe and China at the top of the list.
It reports that investors “have scaled back their growth expectations, retreated into cash and are increasingly skeptical that the European Central Bank will increase interest rates in 2010.”
The proportion of European investors expecting the region’s economy to grow in the coming 12 months has fallen to 51% from 74% in January, and the proportion expecting no rate rise by the ECB in 2010 has soared to 45% from 19%, it reports. Globally, 42% of respondents also now don’t expect to see a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve before 2011, up from 27%, it adds.
Risk aversion also returned, with average global cash balances rising to 4.0% from 3.4% in January, the survey found. Hedge funds have scaled back leverage to less than one times from 1.33 times, it notes. And, European investors pulled out of financial stocks amid fears of exposure to troubled economies. Global investors now say Europe is the region they would most like to underweight, it says.
The starkest monthly change has been a shift back into cash, Merrill observes, and equity positions are sharply down, with 33% overweight equities, down from 52% in January. There’s also been a moderate move back towards bonds, as 39% of asset allocators are underweight bonds, down from 52% a month earlier. Nonetheless, with their equity allocations, investors still prefer growth sectors such as tech, energy and industrials, it says.
Commodities, dependent on Chinese demand, have fallen in popularity with 10% of global investors overweight the asset class, down from 23%. However, following a 9% fall in the oil price, during the survey period, 18% now see crude as undervalued.
All of this came as fears of a renewed economic crisis in smaller eurozone countries, and concerns over monetary tightening in China, it says. Also, world equity markets fell by 8.9% during the survey period.
“Investors are questioning whether this is a pause in growth or a trend reversal. We believe it’s the former,” said Gary Baker, head of European Equities strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
“Concern over European sovereign debt and Chinese tightening means the level of U.S. dollar bulls is at a 10-year high, and banks are once again the least loved global sector,” said Michael Hartnett, chief Global Equities strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
Confidence in China’s continued economic growth has fallen at the fastest rate ever recorded by the survey, the firm notes, with just 7% of the global panel expecting China’s economy to strengthen in the coming 12 months, down from 51% a month earlier. This sharp move followed the decision to increase Chinese banks’ reserve ratio requirements.
European investors responding to the survey have dramatically reduced exposure to banks in the past month. More than half of respondents are now underweight bank stocks, compared with 16% in January. “What’s happened in Greece has prompted questions about banks’ lending positions and exposure to other peripheral economies. There’s also a fear that banks’ cost of capital will rise,” said Baker.
A total of 200 fund managers, managing a total of US$502 billion, participated in the global survey from February 5 to 11.
IE
Fund managers growing cautious as China, Greece weigh: survey
Institutional investors scale back growth expectations
- By: James Langton
- February 16, 2010 February 16, 2010
- 13:55