U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers determined at their last meeting on January 29-30 that downside risks to the U.S. economy remained even in the wake of a massive reduction in official interest rates over an eight-day period.
“With no signs of stabilization in the housing sector and with financial conditions not yet stabilized, the [Federal Open Market Committee] agreed that downside risks to growth would remain even after this action,” the Fed said in the minutes of its January 29-30 meeting, released today with the usual three-week lag. The central bank lowered the federal-funds rate by a half percentage point to 3% at that meeting.
The minutes also included a description of the Fed’s Jan. 21 conference call that led to a surprise three-quarter-point intermeeting rate cut on Jan. 22 and also of a conference call on Jan. 9 that wasn’t previously disclosed. No policy action was taken at the Jan. 9 meeting.
“Some concern was expressed that an immediate policy action could be misinterpreted as directed at recent declines in stock prices, rather than the broader economic outlook,” according to the Jan. 21 meeting minutes. One member, St. Louis Fed President William Poole, preferred to wait until the scheduled Jan. 29-30 meeting to cut rates.
Still, according to the minutes, officials concluded that their “commitment to act decisively … might reduce concerns about economic prospects that seemed to be contributing to the deteriorating conditions in financial markets.”
Meanwhile, the FOMC said today that the central tendency for core inflation was revised up, with officials now expecting core inflation in 2008 to range between 2.0% and 2.2%. Officials had predicted a range of 1.7 to 1.9% in October.