Regulators can afford to take their time in taking steps to restore financial markets, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney told members of the Toronto Board of Trade today.
“There is not need to rush to judgment or to impose hastily conceived measures,” he said, in his second speech since taking over from David Dodge in February. “Many of the market practices that contributed to the dislocations have, quite simply, stopped.”
His speech on market turbulence came on the heels of grim retail spending data out of the U.S. and news that Carlyle Capital Corp., a U.S. mortgage fund affiliated with private equity giant Carlyle Group, will likely have its assets seized by creditors.
Overall, Carney was cautiously optimistic. “The end is not yet in sight, although it is safe to say that we have reached the end of the beginning of this turmoil,” he assured.
Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada announced it would inject $4 billion into markets by way of repurchase agreements, in a coordinated effort with other global central banks. And last week, it slashed interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.5%, saying then, and again today, that further policy stimulus will likely be needed.
“The tone of his speech suggests that Canada may have to endure some further dislocations as credit market regain their footing,” wrote TD Securities economics strategist Charmaine Buskas, in a note. “The fact that he characterized the credit turmoil as ongoing suggests that the BoC may remain on an easing path to buoy markets at this delicate time.”
While Carney admitted that the misery in the U.S. will surely worm its way over the border, he said he remains confident in Canada’s medium-term prospects. “Canada’s financial institutions are very well capitalized and have options in terms of how they deploy that capital in terms of other consumer loans, corporate loans, etc.,” he told reporters after the speech.
“What’s important for the U.S. outlook, whether it’s just above positive growth, zero, or just below positive growth, at this point is less important for the conduct of monetary policy than what the outlook is for the U.S. economy in 2009,” was Carney’s response when asked if the U.S. economy is in recession. Along with the Bank’s latest cut came a revised forecast for the U.S. economy, projecting a deeper and more prolonged slowdown than it had expected at the start of the year.
The solution to current market woes lies in the hands of both the public and private sectors, he emphasized. “The ultimate response will likely be a combination of improved private sector standards and more effective regulation.”
The over reliance on ratings agencies was another big part of the market downfall and Carney suggested that regulators now need to consider how their mandated use has promoted credit outsourcing. “Since ratings agencies rely on their reputations, they have powerful incentives to sharpen their practices,” he added, noting with concern that many investors seem to have “substituted a subscription to a ratings publication for analysis and due diligence.”
Improved transparency and disclosure are absolutely necessary to avoiding such a meltdown in the future, Carney said. “One lesson from the ABCP situation in Canada may be that blanket disclosure exemptions were too broad,” he said. He warned, however, that authorities should be careful of slapping overly tight regulations on financial markets. Instead, he advised, regulators should be looking at principles-based regulation.
For investors, Carney advised that securities may be marked-to-market using imperfect proxies and therefore investors “should be wary of assigning unwarranted precision to such valuations.” As well, he noted that investors should be careful to distinguish between realized and unrealized losses.
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is expected on April 22, and its comprehensive, semi-annual monetary policy report is scheduled for April 24.
Carney finds silver lining in market turbulence
Turmoil likely to result in improved private sector standards and more effective regulation
- By: Regan Ray
- March 13, 2008 March 13, 2008
- 15:15