Source: The Canadian Press

Canadian companies start reporting first-quarter earnings in earnest this week, and with little in the way of economic data until Friday, the market is likely to take its direction from the results.

The results are expected to be strong with analysts at CIBC World Markets predicting a 45% increase in earnings at TSX-traded companies, the strongest year-over-year rise in seven years.

But higher expectations among investors mean the market may not reflect this as much as it has in the past.

“The bar has not only shifted higher on the earnings side, but there has been a shift in the expectations of investors that if you’re going to beat the bar, you’d better be doing more of it on the top-line side and not through costs,” said Andrew Pyle, an investment adviser at ScotiaMcLeod in Peterborough, Ont.

In other words, markets were happy to see any improvement in earnings during the recession, even if they were the result of cost-cutting and not growing sales. But this quarter, companies will need to produce higher revenues if they want to be rewarded by investors.

Because of the higher bar that has been set, it’s unlikely the TSX will see huge one-day gains, said Adrian Mastracci, portfolio manager at KCM Wealth Management in Vancouver.

“Market momentum may continue but it may be that the price increases are a little stingy,” Mastracci said. “I expect a slow, tepid improvement and some choppy markets.”

The Toronto stock market has been unable to find much inspiration in recent weeks despite a parade of upbeat Canadian economic news as the steady trickle of good news has been tempered by a variety of global concerns.

A report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has levied civil fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, combined with a recommendation from the International Monetary Fund that G20 countries slap a tax on financial institutions, have made investors leery of financial stocks.

And concerns about the economies of some European countries continued to weigh on markets as Greece officially asked for a bailout from the IMF and the eurozone on Friday.

The big piece of economic data will come on Friday, when GDP numbers will be released for both Canada and the U.S. Canada’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.3% for February, while U.S. GDP is forecast to grow by 3.5% for the first quarter.

Other economic data scheduled to be released south of the border this week include home prices and consumer confidence numbers on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting, although market watchers don’t expect the Fed to raise interest rates or even change its guidance.

Major Canadian companies scheduled to report results this week include Canadian National Railway Co. (TSX:CNR), Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (TSX:CP), Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G), Rogers Communications Inc. (TSX:RCI.B), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (TSX:POT), Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSX:COS.UN) and Shoppers Drug Mart Corp. (TSX:SC).