Wall Street economists and sell-side analysts might be about to get their first taste of weak U.S. consumer spending, warns National Bank Financial in a research note.

NBF says that most analysts and economists have never experienced an economic environment of lacklustre consumer spending, as real personal consumption expenditures have grown at 2% or more on an uninterrupted basis since 1992.

The firm suggests however that this may be about to change. It says that even if it excludes the possibility of U.S. consumer-led recession, “the table is still set in our opinion for a significant slowdown in consumer spending (to +1.0% by year-end 2006).”

“Using the past as a guide, an environment of rising interest rates at a time when consumers must cope with a surging energy bill is not a confidence builder,” it says. And, inflation expectations continue to increase.

“Unlike the 9/11 episode, the collapse in consumer confidence is accompanied with an erosion in purchasing power,” it says. And yet the US Federal Reserve Board remains focused on price stability as its first objective, likely leading to higher rates.

“Both Wall Street and main street could find the 2005-06 winter pretty cold after this hot summer!” NBF concludes.