Wall Street economists expect a rise in the U.S.’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth next year as a result of stronger fiscal stimulus and weaker regulation, according to the U.S. Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s (SIFMA) economic advisory roundtable forecast for 2017.
The forecast, released on Monday, indicates that economists expect the U.S. economy to grow by 1.6% in 2016 and strengthening to 2.2% in 2017. The jobs picture is also expected to continue to improve, with the unemployment rate expected to fall to 4.7% in 2017 from an average of 4.9% in 2016.
The forecast for “headline” inflation, measured by the personal consumption expenditures chain price index is 1.1% for 2016, rising to 1.9% in 2017, SIFMA’s roundtable says. In addition, most economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve Board to start hiking interest rates as well.
“While there are many fiscal and trade policies to be determined in the Trump administration, the SIFMA panel expects a break in the fiscal log jam toward stimulus and the release of business ‘animal spirits’ from their regulatory cages will accelerate economic growth in 2017 with potential skewed to the upside,” says Stuart Hoffmann, chief economist with PNC Financial Services Group and chairman of SIFMA’s economic advisory roundtable, in a statement.
Business confidence is seen as the most important factor impacting U.S. economic growth, followed by U.S. fiscal policy and private credit market conditions, the SIFMA roundtable says.
“Upside risks include fiscal stimulus, deregulation and tax reform,” the forecast states. “On the downside, protectionist trade policy was a leading cause for concern, as were uncertainty over fiscal and other policies, such as restrictive immigration.”
In terms of the U.S. election outcome, the SIFMA roundtable reports that although economists agree the results increase fiscal policy uncertainty, most see a positive impact on growth as almost two-thirds estimate an upward impact of up to 25 basis points (bps), 19% see an upward impact of greater than 25 bps and 13% forecasting a downward impact of up to 25 bps.
Changes to personal and corporate tax policy as well as infrastructure policy under the new administration are expected to impact GDP growth positively whereas trade policies and immigration policy are expected to impact GDP growth negatively, SIFMA’s roundtable says.
In addition, 60% of economists say that a shift in financial regulatory policy would raise GDP growth by up to 50 bps in 2017 while a third expect no impact and the rest expect a negative impact of up to 50 bps.
The most likely scenario for oil prices, according to the roundtable, has oil remaining in the US$41 to US$50 a barrel range, which is not expected to have an impact on economic growth.