Interest rates will likely remain low for quite some time, and investors seeking yield should look to corporate bonds and high yield debt, investment experts said on Wednesday.
At Morningstar’s annual investment conference in Toronto, speakers said that widespread uncertainty continues to weigh on capital markets.
“The reality is, uncertainty still prevails,” said Terry Carr, vice president and managing director of fixed income for MFC Global Investment Management (Canada).
He expects the removal of fiscal stimulus and the tightening of monetary conditions by central banks will be a gradual process, with policymakers taking a particularly cautious approach in the wake of the European debt crisis.
Scott Colbourne, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management LP, said he expects sluggish global economic growth in the years ahead, which will keep interest rates low. He considers deflation a bigger risk than inflation in the current environment, and he said fixed income returns would suffer as a result.
“Capital market returns are going to be quite modest going forward,” he said.
Carr said the fixed income environment is extremely challenging for investors. He called it “a professional’s market.”
“There’s a lot of moving parts, a lot of things to evaluate, a lot of credit analysis to do, macroeconomic analysis to do, currency assessment, risk, and so on,” he said.
But Carr said there continue to be opportunities in fixed income. He recommends Canadian corporate bonds as a long-term fixed income holding for investors seeking yield, and high yield bonds as a tactical holding. He noted that high yield bonds can produce extremely attractive returns, but can also lead to hefty losses in market downturns.
“You can get some great tactical returns from high yield when you have some active strategies,” said Carr.
Colbourne agreed that investors seeking yield should consider high yield debt in the current environment of low interest rates.
Patricia Croft, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, said investors should not expect strong returns from bonds in the year ahead.
“Yield is scarce,” she said.
Stocks, meanwhile, are set to perform well, according to Croft. Although equities have experienced a correction in recent weeks, she said stocks have fared well given the turmoil in European debt markets and widespread concerns about the global economic recovery.
“On a 12-month timeframe, I still think stocks as an asset class are going to outperform bonds and cash,” she said.
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Finding yield in a challenging fixed income market
Corporate bonds, high yield debt offer opportunities
- By: Megan Harman
- June 10, 2010 June 10, 2010
- 11:38