Source: The Canadian Press

The Toronto stock market is set to notch up a solid double-digit gain for 2010, largely on the back of commodity stocks, at the end of a tough trading year.

Volatility characterized much of the year’s trading, with investors disappointed by the sluggish pace of the global economic recovery and dismayed at the depth of government debt crises around the world.

And the best that can likely be said about the year to come 2011 is that many of the same pressures will still be around as the world continues to dig itself out from under a severe recession caused by a near collapse of the financial system in September of 2008.

“A slow grind, that’s what we’ve seen this year, that’s what we will see next year. But I think it’s going to continue to be some of the same frustrations,” said Kate Warne, Canadian Markets Specialist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.

“The worries remain pretty much the same, but the good news is we are one more year into it and thus, there should be an increase in confidence that we’re continuing to make progress out of it — as opposed to this constant concern that somehow we were going to fall back into the depths of the financial crisis.”

The TSX main index is on its way to a gain of about 13%, taking the Toronto market to about 13,300, still about 1,800 points shy of the record high it hit in mid-June 2008.

But the gains made in 2010 were anything but straight up, with the market suffering setbacks in the spring at the onset of the European debt crisis and in the summer on fears of a double-dip recession.

Markets finally took off starting in late August, when U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank was prepared to do whatever it took to keep the recovery on the rails. Markets took that to mean the Fed would serve up another dollop of stimulus.

The central bank did just that in early November, taking the form of another round of quantitative easing, which sees the Fed buying up hundreds of millions of dollars in government bonds by drastically increasing the supply of dollars.

The TSX gains for 2010 were uneven, to say the least.

“When we look at the returns coming out of Canada, it’s not all rosy in terms of the composition of where those gains are coming from,” observed Gareth Watson, director Canadian equities portfolio advisory group Scotia Capital.

The clear percentage winner was the base metals sector, which surged about 45%. The jump reflected a gain of about 25% in the price of copper to about US$4.20 a pound due to higher demand from emerging countries, particularly China, and a falling U.S. dollar.

A weaker U.S. dollar makes commodities like oil, which are priced in greenbacks, more appealing to buyers who use foreign currencies.

Gold was another big gainer, with the sector ahead about 27%. Bullion hit a record high of about US$1,400 late in the year as investors looked for a protection against deteriorating currencies such as the greenback and euro.

But the energy sector was up only about 5% with oil prices up about 12%.

The financials also managed a gain of about 5% as profits improved and three, National Bank (TSX:NA), Laurentian Bank (TSX:LB) and Canadian Western Bank (TSX:CWB) raised dividends. Expectations were high that other banks would follow suit in 2011.

For 2011, investors should be braced for more sovereign debt fallout. Ireland became the latest bailout recipient during November and markets are also nervous about other countries such as Spain and Portugal.

The TSX could also see setbacks as China seeks to keep the lid on inflation by raising interest rates and raising capital requirements for the country’s banks.

But the main, continuing source of frustration for investors will likely be the slow pace of the economic recovery.

“This economic recovery to me is like any other recovery and that’s like putting together pieces of a puzzle,” added Watson.

“But this puzzle is a heck of a lot bigger. It’s like 1,000 pieces and previous cycles we’ve been through… were only 200 pieces, 300 pieces. We’ve had more pieces to put together.”

And he added that it is important for impatient investors to remember that “we’ve been through both an economic and a financial crisis at the same time. Normally when we’ve been in a recession, it’s just been an economic crisis.”

Watson pointed out that the elements for recovery are there.

“For instance, GDP is growing in a lot of countries but not as fast as we want. The U.S. is growing, just not massively, not at rates we’re used to. Are they creating jobs? Yes, they are. But the problem is not that they’re not creating jobs, the problem is they’re not creating jobs fast enough.”

Other analysts say that the pace of recovery is likely going to be a lot longer than thought.

“Here’s the thing I want people to bear in mind — six or seven years more of the secular bear market,” said Danielle Park of Venable Park Investment Counsel in Barrie, Ont., referring to a situation where weak sentiment causes selling pressure over an extended period of time.

“You will see market lows again. That’s what history suggests to us.”